1. Global growth has remained robust, supported by the recovery of real incomes amid an ongoing process of disinflation. The policy easing cycle initiated by major central banks in Advanced Economies (AEs), in response to declining inflation rates, has generally supported growth. High frequency data indicates strong performance in the services sector, while the manufacturing sector has experienced weaker growth due to front loading of import orders in the first half of the year, driven by rising geopolitical concerns.
While global growth is expected to remain steady at 3.2 percent for 2024 and 2025, potential challenges such as the lagged effects of past policy tightening, persistent geopolitical tensions and a resurgence of trade protectionist policies present downside risks to the outlook.
2. Global inflation continues to moderate, primarily driven by lower energy inflation, easing labour cost pressures and the lagged effects of past monetary policy tightening.
The moderation in global …
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